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'09 Exit Polls: Vast Economic Discontent Spells Trouble for Dems in 2010McDonnell Projected to Win VA; New Jersey Polls Close, Begin Count

ANALYSIS By GARY LANGER
Nov. 3, 2009—


Vast economic discontent marked the mood of Tuesday's off-year voters, portending potential trouble for incumbents generally and Democrats in particular in 2010. But in Virginia, where polls closed at 7 p.m., Creigh Deeds' main problem looks to have been Creigh Deeds.

The Democratic gubernatorial nominee fell short on several measures in connecting with Virginia voters: They divided evenly in preliminary exit poll results on whether Deeds "shares your values" 48 percent yes, 49 percent no. His Republican opponent, Bob McDonnell, scored better; 60 percent said he shares their values.

Similarly, just 42 percent in Virginia saw Deeds as "about right" ideologically, rather than too liberal (46 percent) or too conservative (5 percent). More, 51 percent, saw McDonnell as "about right" on this spectrum; 36 percent said he was too conservative, 6 percent too liberal.

ABC News' Decision Desk characterized McDonnell as "leading" at poll closing time. A key factor, as in most elections, was independents: Barack Obama split Virginia independents with John McCain in 2008, en route to becoming the first Democratic presidential nominee to win the state since 1964. Today, McDonnell was ahead among independents in preliminary exit poll results.

Preliminary results can change as additional interviews are added and results are finalized later in the evening; check back for updates on the Virginia and New Jersey governor races alike.

About half of Virginia voters, 51 percent, said they approved of the way Obama is handling his job as president, and that rose to 57 percent in New Jersey. Majorities in both states, moreover, said the president was not a factor in their vote.

Perhaps most striking though simply confirmatory of national polls were views on the economy. A vast 90 percent in New Jersey and 85 percent in Virginia said they're worried about the direction of the nation's economy in the next year; majorities, 55 percent and 53 percent, respectively, said they're "very" worried about it.

In Virginia, voters who expressed the highest levels of economic concern supported McDonnell by a very wide margin, 73-26 percent. Moreover, 46 percent called the economy the single top issue in their vote, far and away No.1, and those economy voters favored McDonnell over Deeds by a 10-point margin in preliminary results. (An additional 14 percent called taxes their top issue and those voters went for McDonnell by a far broader margin.)

Deeds did better with young voters than with their elders, but in Virginia as in the New Jersey gubernatorial race as well the preliminary results indicated a sharp drop-off in turnout by voters under age 30 compared with 2008 and previous years.

Another, related factor in Virginia was an increase in turnout by conservatives, who accounted for 39 percent of voters in preliminary results, up from 33 percent in 2008.

Twenty-four percent in Virginia said they'd cast their vote in part to show opposition to Obama, 18 percent to support him, while 55 percent said he was not a factor in their vote. In New Jersey it was a still closer split: Nineteen percent said they cast their vote in part to express support for the president, an almost identical 20 percent to show opposition to him, while 60 percent said he wasn't a factor.

At the same time, substantial numbers in both states expressed a view that government "is doing too many things better left to businesses and individuals," a measure of concern about activist government. Nearly half in New Jersey, 46 percent, said government is "doing too many things," while 51 percent said it "should do more to solve problems." It was a 53-42 percent division in Virginia, tilted toward the view government is doing too much. Voters in Virginia who said government was doing too much favored McDonnell by 72-point margin.

Deeds spent considerable resources during the campaign criticizing a conservatively themed thesis McDonnell wrote as a law school student an effort that was perhaps ill-targeted. While 25 percent said the thesis made them less likely to support McDonnell (vs. 8 percent more likely), most, 62 percent, said it had no impact on their vote.

In New Jersey, three in 10 cited the economy as the top issue in their vote, followed closely by property taxes, selected by a quarter. Two in 10 said corruption in government was their main issue; nearly as many cited health care.

Voter turnout's likely to be far below its 2008 levels, complicating comparisons and adding a layer of complexity in discerning the broader meaning of these races.

Sixty-six percent of eligible voters turned out in Virginia a year ago, just shy of 65 percent in New Jersey robust levels of participation inspired by the hard-fought presidential election, economic concerns and the desire for change from the unpopular incumbent. In the far more quiescent 1996 election, turnout was 17 points lower in Virginia, 9 points lower in New Jersey.

Today, with the absence of marquee national candidates, it's expected to be far lower still.

What matters is differential turnout not merely how many people vote, but who shows up in terms of partisan, demographic and attitudinal groups, and whom they support. Young voters and African-Americans, for instance, were central to Obama's victory. But while he won them broadly in 2008, their turnout itself was not unusual.

In New Jersey, young voters (under 30) made up the same share of the electorate in 2008 as in 2004, 17 percent fewer than in presidential elections in the 1980s. They also accounted for nearly as large a group in the 1993 governor's race, 15 percent, though fewer in 1997. (Data for the 2001 and 2005 governor's races aren't available.)



Exit Poll Results: New Jersey, Virginia Take Temperature on Obama
Blacks accounted for 12 percent of New Jersey voters in 2008 but 14 percent in 2004 and 11 percent in the 1997 governor's race. Independents, likewise, were no bigger a group in 2008 than in many previous elections. What was different in New Jersey in 2008 was higher-than-usual turnout by Democrats, lower-than-usual by Republicans.

In Virginia, similarly, African-Americans accounted for 20 percent of voters in 2008, essentially the same as their 21 percent share in 2004. Turnout by young voters, though, was slightly up, at 21 percent, compared with a previous high of 18 percent in 1992. (We don't have data from previous off-year governor's races in Virginia.) As in New Jersey, independents were no bigger a group than in the past; turnout by Democrats was up, Republicans down.

Obama didn't do smashingly well with independent voters in either state, winning them by four points in New Jersey and essentially splitting them, 49-48 percent, in Virginia (but better in Virginia than John Kerry, Al Gore or Bill Clinton managed). In New Jersey, Obama's huge margin of victory among young voters, 67-31 percent, wasn't much different from Kerry's in 2004, 64-35 percent. Obama benefitted instead from better support among middle-aged voters, as well as broader support from blacks and Hispanics and that big Democratic turnout overall.

In Virginia, Obama did six points better than Kerry had among young voters but better still among those in young middle age, 30 to 44 years old.

The mix of voters may well differ this time; older adults, for example, are more reliable voters, and thus, more likely to predominate in low-turnout elections. Individuals motivated by a particular issue, likewise, can have a disproportionate impact on a close race, as pre-election polls have indicated in New Jersey. And then there's the personal appeal of the individual candidates on the ballot another key factor in election outcomes.